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This very obtusely ommits the demand for new data centers and related infrastructure that using AI creates, the going "vegan for a year" option assumes less cows being born but somehow the "don't use AI" doesn't assume that the data center wasn't build in the first place.
The discrete number of cows being born is theoretically fine-grained enough to actually respond to 2–3 vegans yielding one fewer cow. It's unlikely on a one-year time scale, but one cow only goes so far.

Even a thousand AI objectors aren't going to limit the demand for a data center, in no small part because these investments are only partially driven by current demand and are significantly driven by expectation of future demand. And they're really not going to lead to smaller data centers either because if you're building a data center in the first place you're going to spec it out for future demand.

Regardless, I think in both cases it's important to be realistic about the actual impact that one person has. If that number is disappointingly small, that serves as signal that your conscientious objection isn't making the industry you're objecting to as uncomfortable as you would like to think. It may still be worth objecting for your own sense of self, or maybe it serves as an invitation to evangelize your position more, but either way there's not much value to measuring things in a way that gives you an illusion of greater impact than you actually have.