Exactly. I see software engineering going the way of accounting or lawyer.

Every business needs an accountant and a lawyer on hand. In the past, hiring one software engineer to build custom software for your small or midsized business was not worth it. What can one software engineer build? Maybe an MVP in a year? No chance it was worth it for the vast majority of businesses. Outside of corporations or tech companies, employing a software dev was simply not a thing.

Nowadays, your kindergarten might employ a full time or part time software engineer to build custom software. One dev can build a lot more a lot faster.

That said, I think the average or below average dev won’t earn $200k/year anymore. However, the top devs will earn more than ever. If AI increases an average dev’s productivity by 10x, then it will increase a top tier dev’s by 100x.

How much does the appetite for good* software need to grow to not have loss of jobs?

> It only puts 90% of developers out of a job if the demand for software stays flat.

...or if there's an increase of demand for software, but mostly of the kind that can be completely automated by AI, no need for developers.