No, I'm not assuming Moore's law. The efficiency of AI datacenters will continue to improve even without Moore's law, but more importantly the efficiency of packing intelligence into gigabytes and FLOPS will improve by leaps and bounds over the coming years, just as it has for the past few years if not faster.
Then you're assuming an efficiency that is analogous to how Moore's law made it efficient for chips. Same difference. The problem is that AI scaling in the longest term is a completely unknown problem.