And the only companies safe from this are the large corporations that shook hands with Anthropic? Because Fable doesn't seem to have actual safeguards, more like 'if you talk about this you will be talking to Opus.' It doesn't guard against offensive use, it prevents all use (offensive AND defensive).
Rationalists are inventing oligopolies from first principles, absolutely incredible things happening in SF
Lawyers, doctors, students, teachers. Lots of people using GPT models carelessly in harmful ways.
The sooner people learn the risks and build the infrastructure to make it fail less the better.
From the link:
> They summarized their findings from the nine months:
> 1. Humans find GPT-2 outputs convincing.
> 2. GPT-2 can be fine-tuned for misuse.
> 3. Detection is challenging (detection rates of ~95% for detecting 1.5B GPT-2-generated text by RoBERTa).
> We’ve seen no strong evidence of misuse so far.
> We need standards for studying bias.
>
> All these points are valid, and OpenAI did a great job identifying potential risks, especially misuse and biases, at an early stage.
Many of the OpenAI employees who were focused on these risks in GPT-2 later founded Anthropic, notably Dario [1]. Since the beginning and continuing through today Anthropic describes itself as an "AI safety and research company" [2]
I'm not sure if the OpenAI of today has the same focus on safety, or if they do the minimum to not look irresponsible given Anthropic's effort.
https://arstechnica.com/ai/2026/04/uk-govs-mythos-ai-tests-h...
https://www.aisi.gov.uk/blog/our-evaluation-of-claude-mythos...
https://www.aisi.gov.uk/blog/our-evaluation-of-openais-gpt-5...
"We had to do extra work to make this safe because it's so advanced and dangerous..." how many times can they trot out that line before it loses its effect entirely?
Fast forward to today and GPT-3 has laughable performance.
One was a piece of code I gave it to improve, it did so and then started writing tests, some of which tested security so the safeguards triggered
Another was one of the cryptography puzzles I use as new model tests, which are hard to oneshot and there's no public solution anywhere, it completely refused to even try to solve it
(I had same issue, just asked it to check some code that 4.8 had modified earlier in day)
I am sure that they can develop their own equivlient version of such clusters in around 1 year though. Distilling fabel 5 will also go a long way.
edit: I am not really sure if it works like that. I haven't looked too deep into deepseek v4 pro specifically.
I've seen people posting screenshots of billions of tokens consumed where they paid next to nothing.
These same gateways are likely also reselling the data to Chinese labs, because TLS has to terminate at the gateway level.
Thus Asian labs will have to generate their own data sets, which with the huuuuge usage boom from deepseek, mimo, kimi, etc, they will be able to.
That reality is much scarier.
Same thing Meta was doing before they fell behind.
Obviously unrelated to the OP, but it's crazy to me how incompetent Meta is at everything new they try to do.
They burned billions of dollars on the most ridiculous project one could ever think of - somehow thinking that VR is the future.
Then they did catch the initial wave of actual future with AI, they were at the forefront of open weight models - and failed at that too.
What is even happening there?
In CC, it will probably report you to authorities if you ask it to do a vulnerability scan of your codebase.
Pandora box is open anyway. It's better now for everyone to have the same power rather than a few national states.
On your other point, the government still has systemic leverage and can compel access, so this doesn't remove that risk.
That doesn't mean this is the end of the world, and some balance of power is usually good. But I do think it will still increase the capabilties of rogue actors and their net harm.
Even OpenAI and Google are struggling to get this kind of performance. If the distillation defenses are any good + chip controls prevent China from training massive models, it's over.
My hot take is that it's now or never for Xi, and from the specific things he is reported to have said to the US president at their last meeting lead me to think that he at least knows this is his big chance; whether or not it is taken is the part of the forecast that is opaque to me.
In fact, I did go back to DeepSeek V4 Flash for most of my problems as it is way cheaper and there is no need to use SOTA for absolutely everything.
Its obvious Anthropic used it to hype things up and that’s about it.
Not quite. They will definitely have "no criticism of China/communism" safeguards.
Based.