Hacker News new | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submit
I'm partial to "modern ML weights are much closer to 1:1 capacity mapping to synapse count than to neuron count". A single biological neuron is closer to 100 or even 1000 weights worth of ANN than to 1 weight worth of ANN.

In which case: modern LLMs are still running in a capacity-starved regime!

Even Mythos 5, the 10-trillion monster LLM, the scaling law boogeyman, the harbinger of Vera Rubin NVL72, doesn't quite rise to 100T-to-1000T of synapses. Anything the light of today's AI touches still lives in the shadow of what evolution has managed to cram into a single human skull.

We're arguing about the limitations of AI while our best AIs are still very subhuman in the scale dimension. The one dimension we know how to push. And it's already this tight.

10T is about a crows worth. The mythos count doesn't include any diffusion model. But the crows count includes all its visual processing. And tactile. Touch uses up enough that they use skin surface area to normalize across animals when doing comparisons. It is one of the reasons suggested to explain how crows exhibit tool use and language with only 10T. We have a lot more skin than crows, and indeed far more than mythos.
> A single biological neuron is closer to 100 or even 1000 weights worth of ANN than to 1 weight worth of ANN.

Even those comparisons need to be cautioned. The complexity of biology is enormous, and more importantly yet, it's simply not comparable. And doing so invited a bunch of bad assumptions.

An ANN could quite probably model a single in vitro neuron with reasonable accuracy. Whether that requires a hundred or a hundred million nodes isn't terribly relevant.

But the way neurons combine in vivo is completely unlike the way machine learning systems are built. Both "locally" in how neurons interface which is vastly more complex than a weighted sum of inputs, and the macro scale interactions of hormones and other chemicals.

It's not even a given that large numbers of neurons will create the emergent behaviour of human intelligence; Elephants have significantly more neurons, but they're not the triple galaxy brains writing all our science papers. Other animal intelligence similarly is only loosely correlated with brain complexity. (Heck, not to be forgotten is the other end of the scale. Plenty of microscopic life that manages shockingly complex behaviour without any dedicated neurons)

This also applies to ANNs. There's no reason to expect that stuffing enough matrix multiplications into a program will make it intelligent or turn out conscious.

Really, the history of machine learning suggests the opposite; That the big gains are primarily had in architectural changes.

In this regard, I find the talk of the "limits of AI" quite credible. LLMs have already hit the diminishing returns on their growth, and even reasoning/agentic models display failure modes that confirm they're not "thinking" in the ways that humans do.

This is not to say that we've hit the final limits of what AI in the broad sense can do, it's just that the next advancement won't be "LLM but even bigger"

loading story #48399854