>and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5.
90 days or 5 days, it doesn't really matter because the float will be tiny due to the 6 month lockup. What kind of price discovery are we expecting that would happen in the other 85 days?
If it does not matter, then don't change it.
> it doesn't really matter because the float will be tiny due to the 6 month lockup.
Not really: https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/spacex-allow-early-...
The indexes are weighted based on the float (at least most of them)... so a small float means they will buy a much smaller number of shares.
Well, they changed that rule as well. If the float is less than a set percentage, then it is weighted as a much higher percentage. Something like the minimum for weighting is 12% where SpaceX's float will be below 5% (those are the numbers I recall, but I don't have a lot of confidence in them.) That means they will be weighted as if the float was 12%.
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How about 1 more quarter of earning reports and estimates?
SpaceX is slowly and steadily increasing the float over the first 6 months by having a rolling end to the lockup. The only major cliff will be Elons shares
> The only major cliff will be Elons shares
You can’t imagine a scenario where he goes lunatic and does something wild (again)?
Steadily starting about 60 days (Q2 earnings) after the IPO.
> The only major cliff will be Elons shares
I don't think he'll sell a large portion of his shares. My point was that when his shares become sellable will be the only time there is a giant leap in available shares. Because everyone else will be able to sell some of their shares in regular intervals.
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Off-load some of them when the valuation is _to the moon_ from AI and then later he'll force shareholders and the board to gift him even more shares then he sold.
There is a world of difference between 5 and 90 days, even if you aggressively stick to the “time in the market over timing the market” strategy. If it wasn’t of consequence, then they wouldn’t be attempting to change the rules. And if SpaceX is such a great long-term investment, then they shouldn’t need the advantages this provide. Join the index funds like any other company. Let the market sort itself out.