I think we could run for at least a decade further with no model changes/improvements, just better harnesses and infra around this agentic way of developing.

It's unclear it's a dead-end within 5 years.

There's still several orders of magnitude of improvement that are almost certainly left - it's just not clear how much is left on the frontier end.

Most people will be very glad to pay Anthropic, OpenAI, Google etc $200 a month to get things done 20x faster than they could IF they had a $8000 MacBook and could theoretically do it locally.

Some people would pay $200 a month forever not to have to open the terminal one time...

On the other hand, I think I have been hearing that for a while, even before Opus.