Google doesn't release Gemma 4 if Gemini is similiar good.
We probably talk abuot a year of progress diffeerence.
Its also still quite expensive for an avg person to consume any of it. Either due to hardware invest, energy cost or API cost.
Also professionally I don't think anyone will really spend a little bit less money of having the 3th quality model running if they can run the best model.
I'm happy that we reach levels were this becomes an alternative if you value open and control though.