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RiverStone | on: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire
We have limited data on this. There have been surveys, but survey data isn’t always very accurate.

Here was one survey that showed 81% disapproval of the Islamic Republic: https://gamaan.org/2023/02/04/protests_survey/

In a country of 90 million, if the regime has 20% supporters, that’s 18 million supporters.

Tehran population is 9 million, 20% of that is 1.8 million.

So it’s easy to understand why you might see videos of hundreds or thousands of regime supporters in the streets. That doesn’t mean they’re the majority.

krainboltgreene | parent | next
Hey man, 60% of americans disapprove of the current government, that doesn't mean they want to nuke Washington DC.
RiverStone | root | parent
All I can tell you is to go talk with Iranians. I don’t know where you live, but every major city has an Iranian expat community.

All I’m trying to communicate is the conversations that I’ve had with my Iranian wife, her expat friends, and my in-laws in Tehran.

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CapricornNoble | parent
Mint Press News has a good article about why Gamaan's methodology is unsound:

https://www.mintpressnews.com/gamaan-iran-polling-regime-cha...

RiverStone | root | parent
Thanks, I hadn’t seen that article before. Interesting read.

My take is that GAMAAN likely overstates the opposition, but all surveys on Iran are imperfect, not just GAMAAN.

I know Pew has done surveys in Iran, but didn’t directly ask if people support the regime.

I personally believe that the opposition group is larger than the regime supporters. I think there’s enough data to infer that.

But I’ll also admit that there’s probably a sizable percentage of ambivalent/non-revolutionary Iranians who would just be satisfied with a better economy.