The grandparent is definitely wrong on (3). Yes, coding is a killer product, I agree with you.
On (2), I agree with you for local models. BUT, there are also the open source Chinese models accessible via open-router. Your argument ("don't hold a candle to SOTA models") does not hold if the comparison is between those.
On (1), I agree more with the grandparent than with your assessment. Yes, OpenAI and Anthropic are killing it for now, but the time horizon is very short. I use codex and claude daily, but it's also clear to me that open source is catching up quickly, both w.r.t. the models and the agentic harnesses.
>BUT, there are also the open source Chinese models accessible via open-router.
I thought so myself, but after burning a lot of money on OpenRouter in a few days I just subscribed to Z.ai's Coding Pro plan and using the subscription is much, much friendlier with my wallet.