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Its wild how the solution to housing costs is really just:

Build more housing. Keep law and order.

No it doesn’t need to be “affordable”. Yes rent control is a terrible idea.

Just build more housing.

Note: that the US already has plenty of housing and housing costs basically go up in areas of low crime relative to economic opportunity. If you build housing, but allow crime to rise, you have wasted everybody’s time.

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New construction has already decelerated in Austin due to falling prices, which compresses already-near-zero margin on real estate development.

So yes, it really is "just build more housing." The problem is: why would you build more housing as prices fall?

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I'm confused by this objection, if you draw a stereotypical supply and demand curve, you can see how prices settle to an equilibrium point. Of course reality has more complications, but I think your objection is 95% answered by a supply and demand curve. You keep building houses when it is profitable. You stop when it is not. This naturally keeps everything in balance.
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I have struggled to understand why houses don't get built and land sits idle for years. I can only assume that it's significantly more complicated. I'm not trying to excuse the complications. I guess if the house prices are forecast to go up, you build some houses, but not all that you can because the longer you wait, the higher the profit will be on the ones you start later. If house prices are going down, even if it's profitable when you start, you're not likely to build houses because you might be left holding houses that will sell at a lower margin. If there was a tax on unused land, that might skew things towards building more even if prices are declining, but I'm sure there are lots of views on that.
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Some would say that housing is a right (while acknowledging the need for housing construction and its workers and supplies to be paid for) and that it should be funded somehow, even if the free marker profit becomes negative during certain periods. Like any market manipulation, the question then would be how to intervene to keep housing construction going when construction isn't profitable, while not fomenting corruption in the industry.
Housing where? Is housing for me in Malibu a human right? There's plenty of places to live in Texas for basically nothing.

I'm honestly trying to take this seriously, but I really can't square the problem of location and utility. On of the reasons why West Virginia has such a low homeless rate is just that mobile homes and manufactured housing is pretty much legal in many areas around the state. One of the reasons why California is so expensive is that those types of inexpensive housing options are effectively illegal statewide.

> There's plenty of places to live in Texas for basically nothing.

What are the employment options there? If I move to a cheap house somewhere where there are no jobs for me, I just moved somewhere where I cant afford.

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... but your own housing isn't any form of basic human right, its a luxury all around the world and always has been. Now I completely understand folks who come out of uni and see the salaries (sans faangs and generally devs and few other lucky positions), the prices and the emotions of missing out come easily.

But it isn't a right, just because you would like it. Same as I don't have a right to a car at price I would like, just because I live, by my choice, in rural environment close to nature. I desperately need one though for work commute, shopping, taking kids to school etc so thats as non-optional as accommodation to existence of my family. I can either suck up car's actual prices, move whole family so I don't need it or do similar choices in life to tackle that.

But car ain't a right. Same as your own accommodation, of course not a modest small apartment but a house, ideally close to work, amenities, schools, and costing peanuts. Literally what everyone else wants. Or am I incorrect in your expectations? Because if yes, its easy to accept cheap remote small old properties, those aren't expensive for above-average earners at all, anywhere.

The Universal Declaration of Human Rights, Article 25.1:

> Everyone has the right to a standard of living adequate for the health and well-being of himself and of his family, including food, clothing, housing and medical care and necessary social services, and the right to security in the event of unemployment, sickness, disability, widowhood, old age or other lack of livelihood in circumstances beyond his control.

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If a minority has most of the wealth then the equilibrium supply may include a lot of supply of second homes, very large homes on large plots for the rich, properties sold at a premium based on how much they can extract from renters, and even investment properties occupied by nobody whilst still having insufficient small basic homes and dense housing.

Capital that could be invested in better serving the bottom half has to compete not only with the use of those resources to further enrich the rich but other investment opportunities.

There is more than enough land for everyone, and rich people aren't really competing for the kind of housing that poor people are competing for, e.g. smaller plots with smaller homes. The demand of the rich does not eliminate demand of the poor, so the market produces different kinds of housing for different clientele.

Think about it this way: assume you supply all the housing to all the rich people. Then there still remains untapped demand of others that can be fulfilled by further production of homes for those specific people.

This story fails when land becomes restricted, which is exactly what zoning laws cause. Zoning is a big harm to the poor.

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There's a couple of "ifs" there and the scenario seems implausible. If I look at the prime real estate in a city it tends to be a lot of skyscrapers rather than very large homes (with occasional exceptions like say a Buckingham Palace). But it looks like the economic equilibrium is lots of cheaper apartments rather than large homes for rich people.

> ... and even investment properties occupied by nobody ...

Not much of an investment. Something is wrong if that is happening, probably manifesting as a lack of supply. Otherwise what is the point of an "asset" that doesn't generate income, degrades over time and could easily be rented out at a profit rather than sitting unused?

Whatever scenario there is where it makes sense to have an empty property, assuming a sane policy backdrop, it'd always be better for the owner do what they were going to do anyway but also rent it out.

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If you want second homes to be used productively, just allow folks to list them on AirBnb for planned short-term rental. Long-term rentals are a total non-starter politically for second homes, since you obviously can't ethically throw out someone who regards that rental space as their home. But short-term is actually fine.

As for larger homes, people should be allowed to live in there as larger, extended family groups - a common pattern in non-Anglo cultures. Ban "single family" restrictions since they amount to unconscionable discrimination against such reasonable living arrangements.

What do you do when that equilibrium point is hopelessly above what the average person can afford?
Not sure I buy the premise. Austin has a household $133k median income with a $435k median home price. It’s very affordable.

But, to make Austin more affordable still, you make it less expensive to build so that it’s profitable to build. Typical regulations that do this are: - Lower minimum sizing requirements - open zoning - raise height limits - make sure you don’t have unwarranted restricted fire codes (some places have elevator stairwell requirements that are insane) - make permitting easier or not required at all for some cases - no min parking requirements

Pretty sure as good as Austin is, they could easily reduce the costs by up to 30% (there are parts of the country with 50% the cost per sq ft for new construction).

That means there’s an invisible hand keeping prices up, or basically that the market is not free enough. That’s caused most of the time due to excessive regulation.

Another reason is high demand in locations where offer is limited due to physical limitations. There’s always demand to live in Broadway, and offer can never catch up due to its physical limitations.

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there are many things you can do, but essentially you want to make it profitable for builders to make houses at a lower price point, or give the average person more money. Some approaches (not all of which I'm endorsing):

- reduce restrictions around planning / construction / etc (because it takes time and expertise to comply, both of which cost money)

- find a way to bring in cheaper labor, or make it possible for construction companies to hire the same labor at a lower price. Maybe a subsidy, maybe reduced taxes, maybe relaxed labor laws

- add a subsidy for homes

- make your citizens more wealthy, so the price is no longer above their means

- outsource construction to a place that can build it more cheaply (eg, prefab homes)

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Won't the market fill the gap? For example, in Indonesia, "standard size" houses are mostly out of reach for new buyers (young generations), so they build houses farther away and/or smaller.
Remove parking minimums and work to address inequality? If that the case in Austin though?
Where does this happen, in presence of a reasonably free market?

I can only think of extremely land-limited places like Monaco and Gibraltar. Where the answer is "not everybody should live in Gibraltar".

But the US has a lot of land. So much land that it can afford wasting it on endless sprawl of single family homes, which is the least efficient way of providing housing. Most Asian megacities would not be able to exist if they had as strict zoning principles as the US has.

Maybe you should also think about barriers such as "bans on boarding houses". This is what messes with poor people the most. A room in a house full of rowdy individuals sucks, but it is still a room. Possibly you may spend just a year there, then find something better. A tent in an encampment of rowdy individuals is strictly worse on all accounts except cost, and bouncing back from that is harder.

Sure, so long as the balance involves not housing people which is pretty sick and twisted
I never claimed the balance will occur at a point that I like. This is just math, it’s not a political stance. If you want more homes, go build homes.
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I don’t understand your sentence. What’s the subject of the verb “housing.”
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Because home builders don't make money by buying and selling houses, they make money by building them and selling them.
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It's not necessarily prices falling here but the profitability of [demand] at [price]. Like if prices fall 10% but demand rises 20%, you would want to build more housing.

This is the beauty of the free market because it guarantees three things:

[1] Real estate is generally a good investment and will hold value or appreciate in the long term, because supply will adjust to demand shocks to rescue values

[2] If people want to live somewhere, houses will be built for them to live there

[3] Real estate developers and construction are solid, safe businesses with great unit economics because building may decrease prices, but may still increase demand

It's when you constrain and restrict a market that players have to adjust and then you get crazy scenarios

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As long as the cost to build housing is less than the revenue from selling it, why wouldn't you?

It's not like homebuilders in Austin flee for North Carolina when the margins shift slightly.

It doesn't matter whether prices are going up or down, it matters if the price is more than the cost to build.
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There is the possibility that the government builds housing, since the government doesn't have to care about direct profits and can include the overall economic effects of affordable housing in its calculations. We don't expect much direct profits from roads either, but we keep building more and more of them.
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it doesn't matter if prices are falling or rising, it only matters how the ROI of building compares to other investment opportunities

we can also make it cheaper to build. easing taxes on imported materials, bringing in more skilled labor, expediting permits, and even direct subsidies like tax breaks

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    > already-near-zero margin on real estate development
I did a little bit of research. I looks like 15-20% is a normal target margin for the United States. Is this really "already-near-zero"? I disagree.
The prices may be falling, but if you can still make more profit (per unit time) building in Austin than elsewhere (due to less red tape or more local builders or whatever), building will occur.
> already-near-zero margin on real estate development

Why is the margin so low when the prices are so high? Is it because the value of housing is already priced into the value of land?

> The problem is: why would you build more housing as prices fall?

Why would you want to? When you stop being able to sell more houses, that's the sign that you've built enough.

Why let private developers build at all? The market provides perverse incentive to not house everyone.
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Supply increases until the market reaches saturation. The question is why build more housing if the current supply is sufficient?
This is an empirical claim. It looks like new monthly permits are down from ~4k a month in 2021-2022 to ~3k a month. They're still up significantly from before 2020. The building boom has slowed but it's still elevated. Not particularly close to zeroing out.

The data is here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AUST448BPPRIVSA.

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In my state, or in my capital city, you say this, but the real estate developers are generally the top 1% in town. If they're running on razor-thin margins, I'm not seeing it - I am seeing them on my Facebook (being friends with the wife of the mayor) doing things like taking their kids on vacation to the French Riviera, Switzerland, Tokyo, the Maldives... well, alongside the City's Planning Committee commisioners and their families...
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Huh? In Silicon Valley the objection is usually: even if we build more housing, prices won't fall.

So which way is it now?

Construction costs don't scale linearly with rent prices, it's a different market altogether that depends on regulation/worker supply/material costs/equipment/etc.

As long as construction costs remain below the value of the units all-in, there's profit motive for developers to build.

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> The problem is: why would you build more housing as prices fall?

Profitability is not black-and-white. Real estate investments can still be profitable if prices fall.

There are different types of real estate markets too. Working class homes in suburbs are not the same market as upper middle class apartments in an urban center.

A very interesting type of investment is high-density housing in catchment areas of new public transportation hubs. Those tend to be so profitable that they can even finance the investment in the public transportation service.

All you need is willingness to invest.

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Maybe other real estate savvy people can help me understand this plus two other things I'm confused about in the housing crisis:

1. Houses are unaffordable for many Americans. To get houses to prices where they'd be affordable again would require a housing prices drop that would likely be, market-wide, significantly low enough to put a ton of people underwater on their mortgages. What is society/the government meant to do about that? Is it an insurmountable floor on how low we can get housing prices? That floor feels very close if so.

2. We've been promising the last five generations (or more) of Americans that a house is an Investment, capital I, an excellent place to keep your money. How do we overcome the political pressure to turn a house into a depreciating investment for the length of time required to get housing to be affordable again? What kind of politician would put their neck on the line to piss off every boomer and 75% of gen X and 30% of millennials, or whatever the house ownership distribution is?

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That gets automatically decided by the market. That's the beauty of markets. They automatically solve the local knowledge problem. It takes a government to create a lack of housing.
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Vienna built housing itself, with this housing it was possible to have cheap rents and keep rents from private investors down. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Housing_in_Vienna
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This comment is phrased as if the article is confirming these points when it either doesn't mention them or even directly refutes them. First there is no mention of either crime or rent control in the article. But more importantly, it states that "A key piece of Austin’s strategy has been to encourage the construction of affordable housing." So why are you concluding that affordable housing isn't needed?
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Rent control is one of the best ideas, and it may be a civilizational, foundational idea.

Property ownership is at the very core of entrenched power, and the foundation of rent-seeking and wealth asymmetry.

If you look at even the Monarchs of long past - it wasn't their 'titles' that made them powerful - it was the economic rent that came along with the land ownership.

Even in more open market economies, property is still is basically long term economics lording over short term economics of wage earning workers.

Being able to kick someone out of their home almost arbitrary basically puts working class people at the 'total whims of the market' and it's one of the most disruptive concepts imaginable.

If we take the view that 'housing is about housing first - only about investment to the extent it does not disrupt housing' - then a different perspective takes shape.

Many Canadian provinces have 'basic rent controls' and it does not generally prevent new housing development.

If anything, providing 'housing stability' is probably the best way to create base prosperity, so those people can go out and spend on all the other things.

There might need to be some degree of leeway here and there for certain kinds of density challenges, but that can be had with rent control

There is almost unlimited land in North America to build on - if in one spot it's a bit difficult - build elsewhere.

If people want to have 'density' then incorporate an area and 'build density' in that area.

Also it does need to be 'affordable' but that can work with regulations.

Edit: our housing problems are about screwed up management, it's actually not even an ideological problem underneath. Like 'rent control' the way it is framed scares some people, but its literally province wide in Ontario, Quebec and it's a 'non issue' for new unit hinderance. Even the nimbyism stuff can be worked around: if people don't want high-rises next to them, it's their right, but there's a lot less opposition to 'mild density' especially if it fits in local cultural and aesthetic context. We can have our cake and it eat on housing. I think we invent ideological lenses because it's easier to frame 'narratives' than it is just weird policies, special circumstances, hiccups, different municipal things going on all at once.

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>If you build housing, but allow crime to rise

Building enough housing that rents go down is the same thing as lowering crime so not much of an issue there.

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Multiple things can be done at once. The policies you laid out are not mutually exclusive, and have different utility for different communities. But yes, fundamentally more housing is needed for growing populations. Conversions and rezoning are also important parts of the urban equation to “build more housing”, not just exurban McMansion developments.
in america, more density and more people always means more crime
It's possible to build more housing and have rent control. Rent control is the only thing allowing working class families to live a dignified life in the USA's most desirable cities. Land value tax and social housing are simply not politically feasible – rent control is.
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> Yes rent control is a terrible idea.

When you aren't building more housing, for whatever reason, rent control is the only thing that prevents domestic 'immigrants' into your city from making all the residents homeless.

Since cities can't stop migration into them, it's the only tool they have to protect their existing residents.

---

PS. If you believe in trial-by-combat for housing, why not a similar approach to border control? It's the same concept, open it all up and let the market decide whether your existence is worth it.

There are billions of honest, hard-working, capable people who will happily pay more than you for where you live, do your work for less pay than you're willing to accept, and would love to live... Wherever you currently feel entitled to live.

What gives you any right to deny the market from improving the welfare of your landlord and employer?

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Well, build more housing and ensure the more housing is being bought by people who live in it or (if you don't find enough of those) by people who will rent it to them. Many problems occur when capital buys living space as an investment that needs to go up in value, since now there is an incentive to keep some scarcity.
And yet, if you dig through the various comments on HN over the years regarding SF housing costs the overwhelming conesus is more rent control. Sometimes, the most common sense solution turns out to be the correct one.
Hows that working for SF so far?
To be clear, I'm not advocating for rent control. :-)
So pretty much everything you've said here is wrong.

Build more housing? In a place like Austin, you can just keep building out, basically. To a point. Eventually cities doing this reach a limit. Houston and Atlanta are pretty much at or beyond that limit.

And it's not that building low-density SFH housing is the most economic. It's simply the most subsidized. Every road, every parking space, every sewer pipe, every water pipe, every utility pole, every school, every hospital, every police station, every fire station... they all add factor in to the true cost of housing and the more spread out things are, the more expensive those things become. Taken to extremes, look at the billions Houston spends now to add just one more lane (because this one will totally solve traffic) on, say, the Katy Freeway or the ring roads.

Yes it does need to be affordable. NYC is the posterchild for this. Nothing that's getting built on billionaire's row will ever trickle down to being affordable housing. They build ultra-luxury housing because it's the most profitable and it does absolutely nothing for anyone else because these units are just ways for non-residents (mostly) to park wealth and not pay their fair share of taxes.

Rent control is the wrong solution for the right problem and it's typically American. By that I mean it forces the solution onto private landlords who are going to do everything possible to get out of those obligations and deliver subpar but compliant housing. And they'll demand tax breaks for it. When in fact the solution is for the government to supply a large chunk of the housing market ie social housing. But there's a pervasive and wrong idea that we can only solve problems in the private sector and that's nothing more than a wealth transfer from the government to the already-wealthy.

"Just build more housing". Yeah, and then you get Houston. Cities need to be planned. Cities require infrastructure. And one of the most important thing cities need is public transit infrastructure, something sadly lacking in virtually every American city.

The core to so many of these problems is that we need to stop treating housing as a speculative asset. Owning two or more houses should be incredibly difficult and expensive and should be taxed punitively. By this I mean the capital gains on non-primary residences should be 80% and property taxes should be significantly higher.

I dont understand your solution, houses are expensive because there are too few of them in desirable places (otherwise we have plenty). The govt becoming a command economy wrt to housing does not fix the supply. If the govt is just supposed to handle all the supply and demand aspects of housing well I have good news, there is a lot of very cheap housing in former Soviet Republics just not desirable housing.

Also taxing homeowners harder doesnt really solve the problem. CA has insane taxes, SF especially has a giant budget. They just waste it. I dont believe that once the govt raises taxes they will suddenly become efficient and competent.

The idea that the more spread things out the more expensive they are is sound theory. However in practice, per capita taxes in a city are often higher than the rural or suburban regions. One water main should serve more people in a city and its cost amortized across the population should be cheaper.

In practice, cities tend to have tons of programs that drive taxes up. They are free to do that, not necessarily bad, but also not efficient from a tax payer perspective.

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You seem to know Houston; alas yes Austin was formerly surrounded by open spaces.

But let's not miss the point of the article. This is a right-ward shift of the supply curve. It means that the economics of building the next unit got cheaper. That's the point.

I've seen a lot of neighborhoods across the USA, and Austin making way for higher-density housing on urban corridors (Lamar) is like, duh, this is more live-able. There are new towers along rail and bus route, townhomes packed in, and behind the tree line it's now possible for some single-family lots to become duplexes or fourplexes. And rather than McMansion ugly, the new Austin residents are dressing those up to look pretty darn cool.

There is a lot more to be done to remove supply-side barriers in every city.

> Just build more housing.

Also "Wipe out a whole boatload of techbros who artificially inflate prices". Nobody is talking about that part of the equation.

Austin was one of the places a lot of tech folks flocked to when everybody was working online. RTO and layoffs have wiped a lot of them out. I'd estimate almost 1/3 of the tech folks that were floating around last year are now in other cities.

There is affordable housing all over America. Get it through your head. It’s about nearness to the economic singularity that costs so much not the housing itself.
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You have to restrict investors buying up that newly built housing too.

Homes for people. Not investors.

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> Its wild how the solution to housing costs is really just:

> Build more housing. Keep law and order.

Safety (law and order) increases housing costs, as you say. It's desireable on its own, but it does not solve housing cost. NYC is very safe and very expensive. Crime is way down in most of the US, and housing costs are much higher.

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without rent control, what economic incentive do renters have to maintain law and order / invest in local community / be a good neighbor? any investment they make is captured by the landlord. in fact, they are incentivized to maintain their neighborhood in as much disrepair as they can stand, for fear of rent increases.

the little old lady living in a rent controlled apartment is a big part of why rents are high in that area: she was part of what made the community thrive. we would do well to compensate her for this.

And also expand the city line for what "Austin" is so you can include the cheaper, far from everything housing that you refuse to build.

Yes, it does need to be affordable, and a certain percentage of it needs to be non-market housing. Housing isn't an elastic commodity. Get real.

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No, it really is not that easy. Check out China, and read up on the Spanish housing crisis. "Just build more" works only sometimes, as demonstrated in those counter-examples. Housing is massive societal and sociological problem with no simple fix. Furthermore, in many circles, another proposal is to cut red tape. You know, housing in the US already is among the least affordable and lowest quality in the developed world. But some people really insist that going back to asbestos and lead pipes would make housing cheaper.

And don't get me wrong, asbestos and lead are wonderful construction materials. Cheap, durable, and high quality. It's just a shame it causes all sorts of health complications when we use them, right? I mean, it would definitely make housing cheaper, but also cause all kinds of health problems.

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