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ipaddr | on: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story
The insiders ruin a market like this. Unlike in sports/stocks there are no rules / punishment for insider trading.
kasey_junk | parent | next
Prediction markets as a useful tool are predicated on insider information. The punters without edge are the bait incentivizing the insiders.

And in the US prediction markets are regulated like commodities which have much more lax insider rules, because again, insider trading is the point.

datsci_est_2015 | root | parent | next
> Prediction markets as a useful tool are predicated on insider information. The punters without edge are the bait incentivizing the insiders.

And like any other gambling (see 1919 Black Sox), they can also incentivize behavior for actors who can influence the outcome of what’s being gambled upon.

Personally, that’s a significant enough negative externality for me to not want to live in a society where “prediction markets” are popular.

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venusenvy47 | root | parent | next
Why would we want insiders to profit on a public decision like war? If some general has money on Iran's leader being taken out by March 1, he might not be acting in the best interest of the country.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjwz8051y0lo

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cjonas | root | parent | next
How is it useful when what we are seeing is insiders place massive bets immediately before the event resolves. Does gaining this information a few hours early provide value to society that offsets the impact of normalizing gambling and attaching incentives to bad outcomes of war, politics, etc.
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airstrike | root | parent | next
This notion that price discovery is only possible with insider trading is demonstrably false yet somehow surprisingly pervasive.
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hrimfaxi | root | parent
> insider trading is the point

Says who?

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PaulHoule | parent | next
Yeah there are all those stupid things like "what color of Gatorade will they pour over players at the end of the game" that are ultimately about some arbitrary decision an individual or small group. Probably a whole sports game is fair to bet on because it involves so many sub-events but people gamble on things that make no sense to be gambling on.
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aleph_minus_one | parent | next
If some specific prediction market can easily be manipulated by someone with insider knowledge, you better should not gamble in it.
amelius | parent | next
Even in stock trading you can get away with it for a long time. See Epstein.
JumpinJack_Cash | parent | next
The stock market and the sports market are also honeypots .

I have a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn if you believe that when you bet on the stock market or on the sports market for each and every particular bet involving millions of people the maximum profit is not reaped by a half a dozen of insiders who trade on inside informations and their only problem is not being too obvious about it.

Also even if they get caught the millions of people wagering are still getting fucked because there is not a redo or making people whole when the insider traders get caught (which is a tiny percentage of the time)

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