I know the argument I'm going to make is not original, but with every passing week, it's becoming more obvious that if the productivity claims were even half true, those "1000x" LLM shamans would have toppled the economy by now. Were are the slop-coded billion dollar IPOs? We should have one every other week.
Writing pieces of code that beat average human level is solved. Organizing that code is on its way to being solved (posts like this hint at it). Finding problems that people will pay money to have solved by software is a different entirely more complicated matter (tbh I doubt anyone could prove right now that this absolutely is or isn’t solvable - but given the change we’ve seen already I place no bets against AI).
Also even if agents could do everything the societal obstacles to change are extensive (sometimes for very good, sometimes for bad reasons) so I’m expecting it to take another year or two serious change to occur.
They’re busy writing applications for their dogs and building “jerk me off” functionality into their OpenClaw fork. Once they’re done you’ll be sorry you ever asked.
Last time I read about a Codex update, I think it mentioned that a million developers tried the tool.
Don't most companies use AI in software development today?
And yes, I know that some companies are not doing that because of privacy and reliability concerns or whatever. With many of them it's a bit of a funny argument considering even large banks managed to adopt agentic AI tools. Short of government and military kind of stuff, everybody can use it today.