Dunno man. Ideas alone aren't worth anything [0] and execution is everything [1], but good ideas and great execution will never go out of style regardless of how much competition is out there. I'm of the opinion that even if 10% of the population is now capable of creating a side project, there's still the same relatively-fixed amount of people capable of making a good side project, and even fewer who will see it through to a real product. Nothing has really changed in the aggregate. It's like architecture, there are always improvements in materials, tools and processes, and Claude and Codex can provide more laborers for almost free, but most people are still gonna be building uninspired McMansions instead of the Guggenheim.
So really, they are comparatively cheap. I, for one, have hundreds of ideas, but always lacked the time to execute on 5% of them.
- A todo app better than the existing ones
- A todo app with these 3 features
- A todo app with these 3 features, here's how the UI would look
I have tens of ideas, but maybe 1 - 3 that I believe have a meaningful chance to become successful and generate income ($20k annually or more) with great execution. I find it hard to come up with ideas that have a fairly clear path to success and can generate income.
What do you mean "nothing has changed"? Using your numbers, the SNR went off a cliff.
Use HN as an example - I used read the new stories all the time before they hit the frontpage, and upvote as needed.
But with 100s of slop submitted for every 1 actual good article, I can't do that anymore.
IOW, I have finite time. If 10% of the population is now able to vomit out side-projects, I am never going to find the one good one because it will be lost in a sea of rubbish.
And you're right that people still have limited, fixed bandwidth with regards to attention available to give to things.. and the same amount of things that break through doesn't change from what could break through and stick before (in the monoculture). But the amount of niches/verticals where you have the opportunity to break through inside of is significantly higher than ever. That gives you a better chance for success, because your audience is more targeted, more receptive, hungrier for authenticity, hungrier for quality, and desperate for connection to something they like.
TL;DR if you have a good, valuable idea that people want (or don't yet know that they want), execute it well, deliver something that is undeniable, promote it effectively, and stick it out for the long haul, you'll find success. There's no magic formula beyond that, and it doesn't matter if there are 10 or 10 million amateurs clogging the toilet bowl next to you.