You can’t predict a coin flip because it is random. However, we have an accurate understanding of the random process producing coin flips and therefore, we can make accurate predictions about large quantities of flips.

Weather may or may not be random. It could be entirely deterministic for all we know. However, we lack the ability to fully model all the factors that contribute to weather and therefore our predictions are inaccurate.

Now let’s consider long term climate predications. Do you think these predictions are more like coin flips, where we have an extremely accurate model of the process, or more like weather, where unknown unknowns have outsized impact on accuracy?

That’s not to say climate change isn’t real, but your analogy doesn’t make sense.

Unfortunately weather predictions aren’t as simple as a coin flip. But I’m sure meteorologists would manage to fuck up coin flips too.

That's not exactly true, it seems. Forecasts become less accurate the further out you go, unlike coin flips.

Weather forecasts are generally accurate about 90% of the time for a five-day forecast and around 80% for a seven-day forecast. Forecasts beyond ten days are only correct about half the time.