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The charts show software dev gaining more jobs under the COVID demand and stimulus swing, and then losing more as those went away and monetary policy got tighter than even it had been even before the COVID stimulus.

The easiest explanation for the whole chart is "Software dev is more reactive to the monetary policy environment than most other industries, because more of it is funded by new capital investment -- whether VC money or otherwise -- instead of ongoing operations of stable firms compared to most other industries."

Trying to add other explanations is fun, but there's not a lot of evidence for any of them, or even that more explanations are needed.

How are sec 175 changes in the US not also a top explanation? This has a massive cost to small businesses and startups trying to hire software engineers, and a big impact to any team trying to grow.
Because the data doesn't match. The author addresses this in his blog post -- essentially every country has the same graph of SWE jobs, but only the US has sec 175.
Big tech layoffs were a global issue and U.S. tech firms hire (and fire) globally. So like it or not, U.S. economic issues have a downstream impact around the world.

Sec 175 especially hurt small to mid-size tech companies (especially fast growing ones...) which I imagine amplified the problem across the board.

> How are sec 175 changes in the US not also a top explanation?

You mean the change from deductible as a current expense to five-year amortization under changes to Sec 174? In an easy money situation, the way it increases tax liability in year one while decreasing in year 2-5 is not a big deal, it becomes more of an issue as the cost of financing goes up, so the main effect is to increase the already-high sensitivity of software development to tightening credit.

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