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The rise of islam was only possible due to the fight to exhaustion by the Byzantines and Sassanids. If not for the timing, Muhamad and his religion would have been but an obscure cult in the sands of Arabia. Just goes to show that timing is everything in history.
Yea they were absolutely exhausted in terms of economics and demographics but it is so much more than that too which the article touches on.

The lands in the middle east changed hands so many times that you had a generation be born and grow into adulthood without having being firmly associated with one empire or the other.

You had the nomadic tribes grow rich from their mercenary work for either empire.

You also had the fact that both Christian and Zoroastrian faiths took huge blows as the true cross was stolen by the Persians and then the Roman army destroyed the most important Zoroastrian fire temple and snuffed out the eternal flame there.

And finally after the Persians were defeated by the Caliphate, you the the Romans, against their well established strategies, gather their forces for a decisive battle, and then make tactical mistakes allowing for defeat.

It was the perfect storm of the right place, at the right time, with rolling nat 20s.

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The plague and climate change probably also had a massive impact. The latter giving an edge to decentralized nomadic societies.
yes and no then you have characters like Genghis Khan who change history even if everything is stacked against them.
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The rise of Islam through military conquest perhaps, but as a religion it is difficult to say. It spread in (East) Asia mostly through peaceful means all the way to China and South East Asia, for example.
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