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And what are ASML and the Netherlands in general getting out of it?
This is just a small country getting strong-armed by the US. You can be as pro NATO, pro US, pro "transatlantic relations" as you can and they'll still screw you over. Seriously I can't wait for the EU to get their shit together so we can stop being such pushovers.
> This is just a small country getting strong-armed by the US

No, it's not.

It's ASML looking out for its largest customer. It's Amsterdam looking out for its shipping lanes, as well as for its Nine Eyes partner. Washington absolutely strong arms Europe, but it's strategically aligned with the Netherlands.

Like, just think about the guy coming into the White House. What about him screams quiet, behind-the-scenes diplomatic win taker?

The technology that makes ASML’s machines possible (EUV lasers) was researched by the US government with taxpayer money and ASML bought the San Diego-based US company that was producing the technology.
I wish the EU / EU nations were more assertive on any number of topics.

More powers involved the better for me even as an American.

I think it would increase the chances for escalation and war. It's hard to be allies with knives on each other's necks. If the us wants peace and power it should embrace its allies like it did most of last century. If Europe becomes militaristic then it's culture will become militaristic, then will be constantly on the verge of war. It will escalate.

I don't think this is really good for the US or anybody else in the long term.

Europe should arm up, but US should cultivate a friendly relationship. If Europe would arm up and the US keeps pushing it'll either end up with escalation or US will have to start dismantling European cohesion, both out comes would be bloody.

Plus, If this tragedy happens, China would have an easier time dominating.

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Of course, as EU nations are barely assertive they make poor allies.
Why don't you see it as giving a concession to your ally?
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Then be prepared to spend 5%+ of gdp on defense, or become a Russian satellite.
We're 3x as many as the Russians. There's no need for that, unless we need to have a war for some other reason.

5% is what Sweden needed in the 1980s to defend itself from the whole Soviet Union + Warsaw Pact, without the EU and without NATO.

5%+ would likely put Europe ahead of the US in spending on military. Even 3%+ would be such a significant amount of noney that almost noone except the US could compete.

That said, its a price we should pay instead of relying on the US as a partner.

Us and Israel show what the downstream effects on tech innovation are. It may not be a coincidence
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Is that so bad if that’s the cost of independence? Go after profiteers ruthlessly however.
I think it would be a better system (as an American)
It's so sad that the relationship between allies has come to the point where NATO Article 5 has become a bargaining chip against privacy/market fairness laws (DSA/DMA). I think to a lot of Europeans it feels like Americans have unilaterally ended a friendship.

It's true that Europe and Canada need to invest more in defense, but the balance is currently 755 billion USD (US) vs. 430 billion USD (EU) [1]. So it's certainly not like the MAGA rhetoric pretends. The US has the benefit of being a large nuclear power, but for a long time the US preferred being the nuclear protector to avoid too much proliferation on the continent.

Another annoying part of the 'they gotta pay up' Trump/MAGA discourse is that it's starting to sound like a mob wanting protection money. This is not how the NATO agreement works. Countries have to spend 2% of their GDP on defense, but it's not a payment to the US. They could buy Saab Grippens if they wanted to.

[1] https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2024/6/pd...

If the US rhetoric continues it will not be long until you will see some currently non-nuclear EU countries start talking about contingency options. It will take a while, but it is good to remember that the reason there are so few nuclear weapons states is not because it is terribly hard, but because states have abstained for the global good and benefit of non-proliferation. This with the implied protection from states that have it.

If that no longer holds, then we enter a new era where non-proliferation will be history.

I think already at this point, that there will be several more nuclear states in Europe (inside EU) in the not so distant future.

Many of the countries already have certified delivery platforms, or have ordered them.

Of course, we're treading in new waters and it's completely unknown if any existing contracts and treaties will be honoured anymore, but that concern will be secondary to this, I think.

I say it is a secondary concern because 1. basically any European nation can put together a delivery system, ballistic or cruising, should they have to; and 2. creating the weapon itself is not really that big of an undertaking for a modern high-technology nation state level actor.

My bet is that we will see Poland to become the next nuclear weapons state. Possibly in collaboration with some neighbours around the Baltic Sea. Who knows, maybe Ukraine joins
>it's starting to sound like a mob wanting protection money

Starting to sound like a mob? He's been at this for his whole adult life.

I certainly find the trump rhetoric distasteful and counterproductive. But I really think the EU would be better off with the ability to defend themselves. Depending on NATO article 5 always introduces a tempting ambiguity, which can lead to miscalculation.
I agree. Not only does it open the chance of miscalculation, but also makes Europe vulnerable to this kind of blackmailing.

It is still sad though. At any rate, it fits the pattern. During his first term he was also more interested in cozying up with autocrats.

For a long time Europe was happy having the cake and eating it. Pretending to be a united, peaceful, "soft superpower" and reaping the peace dividends of a US brokered world system. Yet everybody knows that almost all power rests with its varied nation governments, that they are all preoccupied with their own demons and internal inequalities and that they all see the EU as an alliance of convenience.

History called our bluff. Event after event, Financial crisis (remember that?), the Brexit implosion of the UK, the Syrian war / migration crisis, the Pandemic, the Russian invasion, the Trumpist implosion of the US, the Adtech invasion, the Energy transition disruption from China etc. An endless list of setbacks that is not going to end anytime soon.

The old continent is shaken to the very core but somehow we are still in the denial phase.

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The long Russian strategy has been to undermine the NATO via the US. The right wing nonsense in the US plays into that, by design, and is happening at the worst time for the US.

Reality is the value that the US brings is lower than it was. Ukraine has chewed up the old Soviet-era WW2 style tank divisions, but we’ve also seen that 4th generation fighters can’t survive in contested airspace and traditional Navy ships need to stay offshore (for now) to avoid being sunk by drone jetskis. Kinda a problem where we have limited inventory of 5th generation aircraft in either of our air forces.

The Navy sort of figured this out, but instead of building submarines built stealth ships with no weapons.

We need a reappraisal of US military force structure, based on the technology of 2026 vs 1986, as we’re on the path to end up like the Russians.

As an EU citizen, what bothers me most about this is that the EU is currently verbally attacked from both sides: Lavrov started in the Carlson interview with saying that relationships with Russia and the EU will be difficult but relations with the US are still possible. Mededev topped it off by saying that the EU cannot be forgiven but the US is still an important partner.

YouTube channels that follow the Russian narrative suddenly amplify this and pivoted from "the US is to blame" to "the EU is to blame".

The US narrative (at least online) seems to shift similarly: The US wasn't that important for the conflict, it is the Brits, the French and the Eastern European states who are the real hawks and who have to pay for the war.

Since the EU will be left out of talks between Trump and Putin, one wonders what the game is here and if secret agreements have already been made.

> Since the EU will be left out of talks between Trump and Putin, one wonders what the game is here and if secret agreements have already been made

This is defeatist. Europe isn't bound by talks it's left out of.

The DMA really is despicable though. Finding existing monopoly language to be inadequate for their purposes, the EU invented entirely new language that’s theoretically neutral laws on neutral principles but was drafted with the intent of targeting specific foreign entities in a comprehensive manner (mostly American, but also TikTok which is a PRC corporation) threatening to levy fines of 20% of their global—not EU—global revenue.

With the full text of the law implemented, several of these companies came up with compliance plans that don’t run afoul of the letter of the law, but the EC has repeatedly and continued to say “not good enough”, effectively inserting itself in the design process of new products and services from these companies going forward.

I’m against using NATO Article 5 as a bargaining chip too, but seeing what popular support crappy extremely targeted and extremely bureaucratically-minded laws like this has, has me questioning how much the EU is really an ally these days. It’s a given that a lot of you feel this way about the election of Donald Trump (twice), so I get it, but it cuts both ways across the Atlantic right now.

> or become a Russian satellite

I'm sceptical Russia has this kind of power anymore, beyond being a proxy for China..

be a US sattelite, be a Russian sattelite.

Honestly it feels like the US is also becoming a Russian sattelite with Trump & Elon having quiet gettogethers w Putin.

Maybe this is a wake up call for Europe to take its own defense seriously instead of relying on the US Both Bush and Obama have called for NATO members to increase their military budgets beside Trump. It took Russia invading Ukraine for NATO members to finally take this issue seriously.

The significant geopolitical shake-up of the past few years should serve as a clear warning to Europeans to prioritize their own defense instead of depending on the USA.

Not going to happen when the leaders of the EU are largely unelected career burocrats.
Wasn't ASML started based on research funded by the US?

> In 1997, ASML began studying a shift to using extreme ultraviolet and in 1999 joined a consortium, including Intel and two other U.S. chipmakers, in order to exploit fundamental research conducted by the US Department of Energy. Because the CRADA it operates under is funded by the US taxpayer, licensing must be approved by Congress. It collaborated with the Belgian IMEC and Sematech and turned to Carl Zeiss in Germany for its need of mirrors.[25]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASML_Holding

Before aiming to not be pushovers, EU should probably study the history of their own companies.

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The supply chain for these machines is heavily dependent on the US and the Netherlands is heavily dependent on US security guarantees, just like the rest of Europe.
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A lot of the IP in what ASML does is held by KLA, Intel, IBM, etc. So america has quite a lot of say in it.
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Article from 2001: What ASML agreed to do to win U.S. approval of SVG merger

> VELDHOVEN, the Netherlands — To win U.S. clearance in the purchase of Silicon Valley Group Inc., officials at ASM Lithography Holding N.V. agreed to a number of restrictions and obligations aimed at protecting lens technology and maintaining operations in the United States. But the Dutch company's CEO today said many of those requirements are compatible with ASML's original goals in buying SVG.

> ASML today announced it had finally cleared U.S. review of its planned purchase of San Jose-based SVG about seven months after announcing plans to acquire the lithography supplier for $1.6 billion in stock. Completion of the merger had been stalled for several months because of concerns about U.S. national security and protection of defense-related technologies. The U.S. government agreement now clears the way for ASML to complete its takeover of SVG within the next few weeks, according to officials in Veldhoven (see today’s story).

> “Clearly any CEO would like a completely free hand, with no obligations,” said ASML chief executive officer Doug Dunn, during a conference call today following the announcement of the agreement. Dunn said a free hand was “never going to be the case with this particular merger/takeover. The U.S. government took a very strong interest in this because, in their opinion, it very clearly effected national security.”

> Topping the list of requirements in the agreement is a promise by ASML to make a “good faith effort” to sell SVG's Tinsley Laboratories subsidiary within six months of completing the acquisition of Silicon Valley Group. Tinsley's lens-polishing technology was one of the major concerns blocking ASML from finishing its purchase of SVG.

The article continues: https://www.eetimes.com/what-asml-agreed-to-do-to-win-u-s-ap...

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They're allowed to export the wafer handling systems (roughly half of their big litho machine) currently manufactured in Wilton Connecticut.
I feel like it’s one of those things where not complying and finding out is not a good option, especially with the disregard and disrespect the US has shown towards the ICC I don’t think doing petty things that inconvenience the Dutch economy would be unthinkable, with the new president I think saying the quiet part out loud, - hell, screaming the quiet part as loud as you can - might be the new norm
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They don't get Nordstreamed.
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I wonder to what extent ASML management looks at Kawasaki Heavy Industries' contracts to build high speed rail in China and says, "that's the outcome we want!"
They get to avoid sanctions and other consequences. It's not meant to be equitable.

But there are still benefits to NL since China is their adversary too.

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Well, they're a pretty big employer, and not in the Randstad.
> what are ASML and the Netherlands in general getting out of it?

Wow, the conspiracy theories in this thread are nuts.

The Netherlands is a port economy and agricultural exporter. The U.S. Navy protects the sea lanes it relies on. The Netherlands have been a reliable and natural American ally because our interests align--particularly when it comes to a war as potentially devastating to international trade as a Pacific conflict.

(Zooming in to ASML, their largest customer is TSMC.)

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Well for one, the EUV technology ASML is known for was licensed to ASML under terms dictated by the US, since it is literally a result of US government funded research.
They don't have a choice. ASML licenses the intellectual property for EUV lithography from the US government. Therefore they follow US export control laws on EUV machines.
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The Netherlands gets to continue purchasing F-35A fighters and participating in the NATO nuclear sharing arrangement. This is the ultimate guarantee of sovereignty which trumps any mere commercial concerns. Quid pro quo.
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Curious who you think uses these devices and who designs and distributes the chips.

Without the American companies not sure the benefits would be the same to the Netherlands or to ASML.

Maybe the kid of some ASML exec gets to go to Harvard?

Who knows. In the last batch of negotiations they never made the deal public. These deals get made by elites and the public never learns the details.

> Maybe the kid of some ASML exec gets to go to Harvard?

FWIW this is not a very common ambition people have here in NL. Besides the implied blatant corruption, which I don't think is the case here, I strongly doubt you can bribe any Dutch executive with something as uncool as a bought Harvard admission.

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Lots of trips to Silicon Valley to learn the "secrets" of being masters of the digital universe.

Somehow it never leads to anything :-)

ASML gets to see the Chinese government sink the big money into rendering them obsolete, they get to see their stock implode and to shut down RND. But the Netherlands will get to see ASML pack their bags and leave. This of course besides further unpredictable retaliation from China.

We also love it when our government takes marching orders from the US.

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We can carry the flag for the US in the war of trying to dominate the planet. I think it is a worthy goal.