My personal view is that the roadmap to AGI requires an LLM acting as a prefrontal cortex: something designed to think about thinking.

It would decide what circumstances call for double-checking facts for accuracy, which would hopefully catch hallucinations. It would write its own acceptance criteria for its answers, etc.

It's not clear to me how to train each of the sub-models required, or how big (or small!) they need to be, or what architecture works best. But I think that complex architectures are going to win out over the "just scale up with more data and more compute" approach.