OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB
https://arcprize.org/blog/oai-o3-pub-breakthroughYT timestamped link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKBG1sqdyIU&t=768s (thanks for the fixed link @photonboom)
Updated: I gave the task to Claude 3.5 Sonnet and it worked first shot: https://claude.site/artifacts/36cecd49-0e0b-4a8c-befa-faa5aa...
Feels like I hit the real world just a couple years too late to get situated in a solid position. Years of obsession in attempt to catch up to the wizards, chasing the tech dream. But this, feels like this is it. Just watching the timebomb tick. I'd love to work on what feels like the final technology, but I'm not a freakshow like what these labs are hiring. At least I get to spectate the creation of humanity's greatest invention.
This announcement is just another gut punch, but at this point I should expect its inevitable. A Jason Voorhees AGI, slowly but surely to devour all the talents and skills information workers have to offer.
Apologies for the rambly and depressing post, but this is reality for anyone recently out or still in school.
We are living in a world run by and for the soon to be dead, many of which have dementia, so empathic policy and foresight is out of the question, and we're going to be picking up the incredibly broken scraps of our golden age.
And not to get too political but the mass restructuring of public consciousness and intellectual society due to mass immigration for an inexplicable gdp squeeze and social media is happening at exactly the wrong time to handle these very serious challenges. The speed at which we've undone civil society is breakneck, and it will go even further, and it will get even worse. We've easily gone back 200 years in terms of emotional intelligence in the past 15.
Please share. I’m compiling a list.
"low compute" mode: Uses 6 samples per task, Uses 33M tokens for the semi-private eval set, Costs $17-20 per task, Achieves 75.7% accuracy on semi-private eval
The "high compute" mode: Uses 1024 samples per task (172x more compute), Cost data was withheld at OpenAI's request, Achieves 87.5% accuracy on semi-private eval
Can we just extrapolate $3kish per task on high compute? (wondering if they're withheld because this isn't the case?)
I have no idea what to specialize in, what skills I should master, or where I should be spending my time to build a successful career.
Seems like we’re headed toward a world where you automate someone else’s job or be automated yourself.
It's not encouraging from the point of view of studying hard but the evolution of work the past 40 years seems to show that your field probably won't be your field quite exactly in just a few years. Not because your field will have been made irrelevant but because you will have moved on. Most likely that will be fine, you will learn more as you go, hopefully moving from one relevant job to the next very different but still relevant job. Or straight out of school you will work in very multi-disciplinary jobs anyway where it will seem not much of what you studied matters (it will but not in obvious ways.)
Certainly if you were headed into a very specific job which seems obviously automatable right now (as opposed to one where the tools will be useful), don't do THAT. Like, don't train as a typist as the core of your job in the middle of the personal computer revolution, or don't specialize in hand-drawing IC layouts in the middle of the CAD revolution unless you have a very specific plan (court reporting? DRAM?)
The technical act of solving well-defined problems has traditionally been considered the easy part. The role of a technical expert has always been asking the right questions and figuring out the exact problem you want to solve.
As long as AI just solves problems, there is room for experts with the right combination of technical and domain skills. If we ever reach the point where AI takes the initiative and makes human experts obsolete, you will have far bigger problems than career.
It has well replaced journalists, artists and on its way to replace nearly both junior and senior engineers. The ultimate intention of "AGI" is that it is going to replace tens of millions of jobs. That is it and you know it.
It will only accelerate and we need to stop pretending and coping. Instead lets discuss solutions for those lost jobs.
So what is the replacement for these lost jobs? (It is not UBI or "better jobs" without defining them.)