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I'm a little bewildered by this sort of prediction. How will you update your priors in 2028 when this doesn't happen? What will be the excuse for why this didn't happen?
I dunno, to quote the new top dog "in four years, you won't have to vote again"

I'd say if it doesn't happen he failed to deliver on an election promise.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-tells-christians-they...

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I'm a citizen of a country where the authoritarian leader captured the state and mostly destroyed democracy. So we managed to find out whether he was a danger to democracy or not (he was). What sucks, is that when it is proved, then there is already too late to do anything about it (because by definition you can not send them away in an election). So my 2 cents: if there are any signs that someone is a risk to democracy, it is better be safe than sorry, and just choose a different candidate. Everything else can be corrected in the next election, but not this.
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It's insane, exactly the same slippery slope fallacy as "the left want to make your kids gay", people completely lost their mind on both side of the spectrum
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He literally attempted a coup, it's pretty amazing people are still trying to act like this is exaggeration or unreasonable.

It's not guaranteed, no, and I sincerely doubt we are going to see Trump literally cancel elections, but it's a very reasonable assumption that they are going to do what they've said they'll do and tried to do: install judges that will swing things their ways, suppress voters who don't support them, punish anyone who opposes them, inspire and promote political violence against anyone who opposes them, and gerrymander as much as possible. That's enough to functionally end US democracy if they do it well.

That's not some wild prediction or unlikely outcome, it's the logical continuation of their previous actions. Someone attempting something they tried before isn't unexpected. He actively tried to subvert democracy and the public have rewarded him, why would he not?

> He actively tried to subvert democracy and the public have rewarded him, why would he not?

That's the key observation.

> I sincerely doubt we are going to see Trump literally cancel elections

The logical path here is for red states to cancel elections and appoint electors to send in January 2029. The feds cannot do it themselves, but they do not need to.

The elections clause of the constitution does not apply to presidential elections, and all the constitution says about that is that the states may choose how to appoint electors, as long as it all happens on the same day.

The USA uses a gerrymandered, two-party, first-past-the-post system with electoral college to boot. I for one would stop short from calling that a system that accurately reflects the will of the populace.
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Where is any evidence he actually attempted a coup?

Here is evidence he told the protestors to be peaceful: https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1346912780700577792

He never said "Storm the Capitol!!" or anything like that.

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He attempted a coup? It is obvious you do not do third world country much. This is not how it is done haha. The problem is will you admit you were dead wrong and potentially spewing propaganda if democracy survives Trump’s second term?
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“You know, FDR 16 years – almost 16 years – he was four terms. I don’t know, are we going to be considered three-term? Or two-term?”

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/19/trum...

he has vowed to be dictator on day one

https://apnews.com/article/trump-hannity-dictator-authoritar...

On February 27th-the Reichstag in Berlin was set on fire. 4 weeks before, Hitler was appointed to chancellor. Hitler placed an urgency regulation to ban all political activities. He destroyed democracy in one month. Trump can now do it one day.

he is definitely signaling something, whether it will come true or not is another question.