Updated values, all to 0.1% precision.
State EV Poll (D/R) Vote (D/R) Delta (D/R) Win
AL 9 36.1 63.9 34.2 64.8 -1.9 0.9 R
AK 3 45.1 54.9 40.4 55.6 -4.7 0.7 R
AZ 11 49.0 51.0 47.2 51.9 -1.8 0.9 R
AR 6 35.7 64.3 33.6 64.2 -2.1 -0.1 R
CA 54 62.7 37.3 57.4 40.0 -5.3 2.7 D
CO 10 56.2 43.8 54.6 43.1 -1.6 -0.7 D
CT 7 58.7 41.3 54.5 43.8 -4.2 2.5 D
DC 3 92.4 7.6 92.4 6.7 0.0 -0.9 D
DE 3 58.1 41.9 56.5 42.0 -1.6 0.1 D
FL 30 47.0 53.1 43.0 56.1 -4.0 3.0 R
GA 16 49.4 50.6 48.5 50.8 -0.9 0.2 R
HI 4 63.7 36.3 62.2 36.1 -1.5 -0.2 D
ID 4 33.2 66.8 30.7 66.5 -2.5 -0.3 R
IL 19 57.4 42.6 53.3 45.3 -4.1 2.7 D
IN 11 41.4 58.6 39.2 59.1 -2.2 0.5 R
IA 6 46.4 53.7 42.3 56.3 -4.1 2.6 R
KS 6 41.9 58.1 40.8 57.4 -1.1 -0.7 R
KY 8 36.0 64.0 33.9 64.6 -2.1 0.6 R
LA 8 39.6 60.4 38.2 60.2 -1.4 -0.2 R
ME 2 54.3 45.7 53.1 44.3 -1.2 -1.4 D
ME-1 1 61.2 38.8 60.4 33.6 -0.8 -5.2 D
ME-2 1 46.9 53.1 45.0 52.9 -1.9 -0.2 R
MD 10 64.2 35.8 60.2 37.3 -4.0 1.5 D
MA 11 64.0 36.0 61.9 35.9 -2.1 -0.1 D
MI 15 50.6 49.4 48.2 49.8 -2.4 0.4 R
MN 10 52.9 47.1 51.1 46.8 -1.8 -0.3 D
MS 6 40.5 59.5 37.7 61.1 -2.8 1.6 R
MO 10 42.9 57.2 40.1 58.5 -2.8 1.3 R
MT 4 41.0 59.0 38.4 58.5 -2.6 -0.5 R
NE 4 41.3 58.7 38.5 60.2 -2.8 1.5 R
NE-1 1 41.6 58.4 42.4 56.3 0.8 -2.1 R
NE-2 1 53.5 46.5 51.2 47.5 -2.3 1.0 D
NE-3 1 22.6 77.4 22.5 76.3 -0.1 -1.1 R
NM 5 53.7 46.3 51.6 46.1 -2.1 -0.2 D
NV 6 50.0 50.0 46.8 51.5 -3.2 1.5 R
NH 4 53.0 47.0 51.0 48.0 -2.0 1.0 D
NJ 14 56.9 43.2 51.5 46.6 -5.4 3.4 D
NY 28 58.9 41.5 55.4 44.6 -3.5 3.1 D
NC 16 49.4 50.6 47.7 51.1 -1.7 0.5 R
ND 3 33.3 66.7 30.8 67.5 -2.5 0.8 R
OH 17 45.8 54.2 43.9 55.2 -1.9 1.0 R
OK 7 33.2 66.8 31.9 66.2 -1.3 -0.6 R
OR 8 56.5 43.6 54.9 42.5 -1.6 -1.1 D
PA 19 50.0 50.0 48.4 50.7 -1.6 0.7 R
RI 4 58.4 41.7 55.5 42.4 -2.9 0.7 D
SC 9 43.7 56.3 40.5 58.1 -3.2 1.8 R
SD 3 36.0 64.0 33.0 64.7 -3.0 0.7 R
TN 11 38.1 61.9 34.4 64.3 -3.7 2.4 R
TX 40 46.3 53.7 42.4 56.3 -3.9 2.6 R
UT 6 38.9 61.1 38.9 58.9 0.0 -2.2 R
VT 3 66.5 33.5 64.3 32.6 -2.2 -0.9 D
VA 13 53.4 46.6 51.8 46.6 -1.6 0.0 D
WA 12 58.9 41.1 58.6 39.1 -0.3 -2.0 D
WV 4 29.8 70.2 27.9 70.2 -1.9 0.0 R
WI 10 50.6 49.5 48.8 49.7 -1.8 0.2 R
WY 3 27.4 72.6 26.1 72.3 -1.3 -0.3 R
Blue votes: 56
Red votes: 56
Blue delta: -2.26
Red delta: 0.42
- Harris did more poorly than forecast in all but three races: DC, UT, and NE-1.
- Her opponent did better than forecast in 32 races.
- Many of Harris's bigger under-performances were in races she won, notably CA. FL and TX are losses with far worse-than-polled returns.
Net average polling bias is 2.68 points favouring the GOP across 56 contests.
loading story #42074144