NB: If anyone knows a source that has tabular formatted polling and election data, that would make it a lot easier to compute this than hand-entering.

With updated (and 0.1% decimal precision) election returns, Harris's polling delta falls to -2.25% (Orange is unchanged). The overall advantage of her opponent over polling data is 2.89%. Which is a lot.

Still want to get more precise polling numbers in there, but again, it's not shifting a lot. Law of Large Numbers dictates that, as multiple rounded numbers tend to even out the precision distinction.

I've just re-run my analysis with higher precision on the deltas. Harris performed worse in every single race save DC than projected. Orange performed better in a majority of races, by as much as 5+ percent.

(I still need more accurate data for polling, I'll add a comment when I've updated that.)