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ericd | on: Trump wins presidency for second time
It will almost certainly accelerate inflation, but won’t it also give domestic manufacturing workers hurt by globalization a lot more demand for their work, and leverage to increase their wages? It seems like the main people hurt by this would be the upper middle class and above, the execs, designers, and managers who’ve directly and indirectly managed large international teams of laborers working at low rates, as they’ll get hit by the inflation, but see no additional demand/leverage to increase their wages. They’re the part of the bimodal wealth distribution that has until now done very well by globalization, and I think this election is largely a reaction by the other mode.
xnx | parent | next
> won’t it also give domestic manufacturing workers hurt by globalization a lot more demand for their work

Temporarily perhaps, the push for automation in manufacturing (and farm operations) will be very strong.

anigbrowl | parent | next
No. You can't just wave a magic wand and order manufacturing home. Capitalists exported a lot of skill and industrial infrastructure to overseas markets, which can't be rebuilt overnight.

There was talk about this in the first term too, and it ended up with a lot of money from tariffs being used to subsidize farmers because they found themselves doing so poorly that suicides spiked.

ericd | root | parent
Right, it seems likely to be disruptive in the short term, and there would be skill shortages and big holes in the domestic supply chain. I mean more abstractly/directionally. It does seem like it’d be best if it was phased in predictably over a longer period of time, but doesn’t seem like that’s the plan.
no_wizard | parent | next
It hurts everyone, the price shocks will be felt for years, and any gains that can be made won't matter.

Wage gains won't keep pace with any price increases either, Republican's have already outlined policies that are regressive to average Americans[0][1]

About the only thing tariffs will do is consolidate power at the top and allow the largest corporations to buy out smaller ones that can't cope as well.

We are remember, talking about broad spectrum tariffs here, which will hit any import, from food to solar panels.

[0]: https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/32a303df-1977...

[1]: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/10/30/trump-reduce...

ericd | root | parent
That JEC doc doesn’t seem to mention tariffs?

Yes, prices will rise, the question is whether it will increase their leverage in the job market enough to boost their earnings enough to counteract the higher prices.

no_wizard | root | parent
my point with the JEC wasn't about tariffs its about Republican policies that show that "will it increase their leverage in the job market enough to boost their earnings enough to counteract the higher prices" is fantasy

The highest levels of leadership of the Republican party have shown time and again that they want a permanent poor underclass through their policies (both enacted and proposed) and actions.

There's no sense in speculation here, if they can put the boot on labors neck, they will 100% of the time

ericd | root | parent
I mean, we were just talking about tariffs, not whatever else may be in their plans.

But point taken, you think that the net result will be worse for poor people. I don’t necessarily disagree, it just seems that this one bit might be somewhat positive for the poor.

no_wizard | root | parent
The net result will be worse for all people except those in power
tayo42 | parent
I don't think the US is the only place where US companies sell things. What about when tariffs are placed on US items, demand will drop with US made things.
ericd | root | parent
It’s not, but our balance of trade is very deeply negative. We import a lot more than we export. Partly because our currency is kept artificially strong by reserve currency status, preventing our exports from becoming more competitive when we go deeply into debt.
tayo42 | root | parent
we import some important things though right now. Like a lot of our food. I don't think we can turnover all of the inedible corn we grow for real food?

I can't imagine there will be iphone factories all of the sudden in the US.

Those kinds of items effect people day to day.

ericd | root | parent
Yeah, it'd probably be at least a bit messy.