Hacker News new | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submit
tekknik | on: Trump wins presidency for second time
You believe polls? The right notoriously is undersampled because they simply don’t take them. If you need more evidence, the polls also put her in the lead.
acdha | parent
Polls had it as a tossup similar to what we saw. I believe that when voters repeatedly say they care about the economy and immigration, they probably are saying those because they mean it and not because they’re fixated on trans people but shy.
tekknik | root | parent
that’s a toss up? no that’s a commanding victory. if republicans take the house and all else is the same they’ll have won popular, electoral, house and senate. that’s not a toss up
acdha | root | parent
It’s still a tossup: you’re conflating the polls being within the margin of error with the electoral college vote count, but all of the major analysts were saying it was even odds that either of them could win with a range of vote totals. 538 had it at 52:48 favoring Trump yesterday, and the EV range went high because so many states were close.

https://abcnews.go.com/538/538s-final-forecasts-2024-electio...

> But it is worth stressing that the polls will not be exactly correct. Polls overestimated Democrats by an average of 3-4 points in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, for example, and overestimated Republicans by an average of 2.5 points in the 2012 presidential election. Our election model expects polls this year to be off by 3.8 points on average, although it could be more or less — and our model thinks this error is equally likely to favor Democrats as Republicans

> And that’s why we’ve been saying the race isn’t necessarily going to be close just because the polls are. Trump and Harris, our model says, are both a normal polling error away from an Electoral College blowout.

tekknik | root | parent
come back in two days and explain why you’re wrong. you’ve lost complete. you may get the house, very unlikely at this point, but that’s the only one not confirmed. dems have no recourse here, the attacks didn’t work, the hate speech didn’t work, and now you can’t accept the results.

ready for voter IDs yet?

yongjik | root | parent
That's rich, coming from someone cheering for a guy who didn't accept he lost for four years.
tekknik | root | parent
You still don’t understand voter IDs? you think you’re going to win here?

mark my words, we will have voter IDs before I die, and it will actually solve this problem.