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goles | on: Trump wins presidency for second time
Can't remember where I read this but essentially most Americans are single issue voters on the economy. They just pick their second most important issue when the economy is humming along nicely.

The economy has been fine for many peoples working lives during ZIRP. But when people feel like their struggling to afford diapers and cereal most other issues become secondary.

tw04 | parent | next
Then all those people are in for a heck of a rude awakening. I can tell you what’s going to happen to the cost of everyday goods with a 100% tariff placed on top, and the answer isn’t: they’re going down.
frmersdog | root | parent | next
And the Harris campaign's answer to this was...?

Keep in mind that this is after the Biden admin/Congress gutted half of his proposed infrastructure reform. That half was already compromised compared to what progressives wanted, and they STILL couldn't pass it. Guess who stayed home yesterday?

When you say, "Your only choice to save democracy is to vote for me," reasonable and rational people conclude that democracy is already done for and simply don't vote for anyone. And there were warnings that this would happen - like the primaries in Michigan - but establishment Democrats didn't listen (or didn't care). So, now, here we are. How's that for a rude awakening?

nprateem | root | parent | next
Populism only works because the average voter doesn't understand economics or politics. Or much of anything they're voting for really.
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kyleee | root | parent
What “everyday goods” are getting a 100% tariff? Is there a list somewhere?
saynay | parent | next
This has been my thought as well. Inflation was high, so low-propensity voters against the current party show up while those for the current party don't. It will take some time to see what the actual voting shifts were, but the economy has always been an accurate predictor.
lokar | root | parent
The general consensus was to avoid high unemployment as that would anger voters.

Now we know high inflation is much much worse in the minds of voters.

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margorczynski | parent | next
The money from ZIRP mostly goes to the upper class as it props up asset values - stocks, land & housing, luxury goods, etc.

In general easy lending benefits the richest the most - that's why you saw such a growing split between the wealth of the richest and poorest after throwing away the gold standard.

frmersdog | root | parent
>The money from ZIRP mostly goes to the upper class as it props up asset values - stocks, land & housing, luxury goods, etc.

One that people tend to miss: compensation for high-income professionals. When that gets bid up, so does the price of everything they spend money on. Education/childcare, personal electronics, healthcare, transportation, food, etc. It's not just the wealthy and ultra-wealthy; when the upper middle class can pay and not feel pain, that's taken as a signal to jack up prices across the board.

margorczynski | root | parent
I would most certainly categorize what is commonly known as the "upper middle class" as wealthy. Upper-middle usually has a sizable wealth, mainly in real estate, equities, etc. So it is not only the rich and ultra-rich (but of course them benefit from this the most if they don't do anything too stupid). Of course all of these terms and definitions are quite fuzzy so the whole argument hinges on some implicit agreement as to the specifics.
qeternity | parent | next
ZIRP was the cause of that pain.
throwaway2037 | parent | next

    > essentially most Americans are single issue voters on the economy.
Isn't this true in all democracies? It is very hard to stay in power if the economy isn't doing well.
Pedro_Ribeiro | root | parent
In Portugal the same two parties have been consistentently fucking up the economy for the past 30 years with no end in sight. It's comically bad.

They then announce pensions for majority groups like the elderly and get voted into power by the same groups they are financing.

bryanlarsen | parent | next
Democratic messaging really failed. The economy was a winnable issue for them. Trump's promises (20% broad tariff, mass deportation, make the Fed a political office, trade wars) would devastate the economy and cause significant inflation. Even Elon Musk admits that Trump's plans will tank the economy. https://x.com/whstancil/status/1851265385909092565

Now right wing commentators are saying that Trump won't actually do what he promised.

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/11/wh...

nirav72 | root | parent | next
Most of the stuff he promised he won't do. Simply because of the sheer complexity and resources involved. It's not in his nature to focus and work out complex issues. Imagine the logistics required to simply apprehend, process and deport 10-15 million people at scale. He'll probably do better at closing the border than any past president. That's for certain. But actually deporting all undocumented migrants already within the country. yeah, that's not happening.

At best , its going to be performative on many things. Even with structural changes to the administrative state that the GOP's project 2025 seems to be promising - it's harder than it appears.

Regarding tariffs - China is currently in an economy slump. Trump being transactional in nature , its certain the Chinese will be open to bilateral agreements. So I don't see tariffs lasting long.

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toyg | root | parent
> right wing commentators are saying that Trump won't actually do what he promised

I expect a lot of voters actually thought that would be the case: "yeah yeah he has to make noise during the campaign, once he gets in he'll just give us some more tax breaks, he's not crazy."

I guess we'll see if that's the case.

romwell | parent | next
>But when people feel like their struggling to afford diapers and cereal most other issues become secondary.

Not entirely unreasonable.

Now, if only they had the brains to realize that the economy during the current term was shaped by the decisions made in the previous term.

Cue Trump's 2nd term being propped up by everything Biden did to un-fuck Trump's 1st term.

poes-law | root | parent
Poe's law comes to mind for me here. But I guess this comment is sincere.
mlcrypto | parent
Under the Biden/Harris administration even software engineers were hurting and couldn't find work. Unprecedented
eadmund | root | parent | next
> even software engineers were hurting and couldn't find work. Unprecedented

Is the tech bust of 2000 so easily forgotten? And then the global financial crisis of 2008?

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gortok | root | parent | next
It was a combination of factors: zero interest rate policies changed to fight inflation and the Tax Cut Jobs act of 2017 changes (section 174) requiring capitalization of everything softwsre development related except bug fixes went into effect for tax year 2022.

If software developer salaries cannot be expensed and it’s now 5 times more expensive to borrow money to expand, jobs will be lost.

Oh, and the TCJA was championed and signed into law by then President Trump.

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romwell | root | parent
>Under the Biden/Harris administration even software engineers were hurting and couldn't find work. Unprecedented

Sure.

And why do you think that might be?

In other words, do you think policy changes have instantaneous effect on issues like unemployment, or perhaps they take some time?

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