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The popular vote is not a good indicator. I live in a deep blue state, the fact that my vote doesn't actually influence the electoral college reduces the incentive to go vote, drastically.
That goes both ways. In fact, there might be more Red voters who think their vote is futile and don’t do out to vote.
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Exactly, unless you rerun with a "popular vote wins" election - it's not concrete at all. The campaigns would not have been run in the same way, and the people would not vote in the same way.

I say this every election when democrats play the "but we won the popular vote" card as well - that wasn't the game being played, so it doesn't really mean that much.

If he didn’t win it, the democrats narrative right now would be the electoral college is a fraudulent system and he is illegitimate. #notmypresident

Now you can question 2nd order effects, but that’s not a message that’s easy to communicate through media.