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{"deleted":true,"id":42058342,"parent":42058162,"time":1730883956,"type":"comment"}
I would like to skip that rethoric here on HN whenever possible. You cannot possibly reduce 70M voters to that.

I would like to explore the whys and hows of this apparent step backwards in so many things and why Trump was voted like he was and this reductionist view helps no one.

You're right to point out that this kind of rhetoric isn't really in the spirit of HN.

On the other hand, it's a fallacy to assume that there must be merit to an argument just because it's championed by a majority.

I'm aware that it's politically suicidal to say that "most people are stupid", but I'm not a politician (I'm not even American) and I feel like "stupidity" should not a priori be ruled out as an explanation.

You would have to provide a better and more precise definition of "stupid" then, the word has a tendency to become circular
Perhaps you could use the word "idiot" and refer to them as "idiots". The term has been used in a medico-legal context in the past to define a person's mental age.

That there is a divide between the two parties and the average intellectual ability of their supporters is a well-known fact. I'd contest that this is less of an issue than their racism.

Engineering students are actually more conservative than a group like communications majors. Are communications majors smarter?
I was moving the point away from a measure of smartness to one of racism. I do hope you haven't just damned all the other engineers on HN!
So you really think more than half of the Americans are mentally impaired? The probability of being mentally impaired is higher for a random poster like you than for half of American people.
Your understanding of statistics is deplorable. Also, your reading ability. I specifically said it's racism, rather than the (verifiable) lack of intelligence.
True, "stupid" is a very imprecise term. But my main point was merely that epistemically, there is no validity to something just because a majority is behind it.
Well, technically, stupidity is relative. If you're defining it as "below 50%", then that's half the people. "Below 90%", even more, etc, so the statement in itself doesn't really make sense.

If you're in the 90th IQ percentile, sure, most people are stupid to you.

You would be a fool to think that an entire population is stupid. Perhaps a proportion sure but the deciding vote comes from a large proportion of the population that are by no means stupid. Democracy in theory is a form of distributed computation and just because you don't agree with the end result does not make every else stupid
So you are saying people who think other people are stupid are, in fact, the stupid ones. Fascinating.
What would you say if most of a population think that most of the population is stupid, themselves excluded?

Which seems to actually be the case quite often.

>I feel like "stupidity" should not a priori be ruled out as an explanation.

If that is the case, stupidity shouldn't be ruled out for both sides.

People feeling disenfranchised and reaching for populists is a common issue throughout time.

I believe social media has widened the most extreme opinions and forced polarisation on most people, I can feel it with the UK too, where a very clearly corrupt government, with a revolving door of leadership: one losing the country enough money in 14 days to pay for the NHS for a decade… are being talked about favourably over a meek, awkward, slightly right of centre leader who happens to be wearing a red badge instead of a blue one.

Discourse is so swollen with bitter defence and snide attacks with soundbites of “sides”, I really do believe that its the fault of platforms showing the most divisive voices most often.

The thing that pushes me towards right for example, is seeing people dehumanising men for being men (not behaviours, just clear misandry against the gender) on social media so openly- and to much fanfare. I would otherwise be considered extremely left wing by UK standards.

> people dehumanising men for being men

Is this something you do actually experience in real life though?

Because I'm with you that social media is part of the problem. When I was using Twitter, many years ago, I also saw a lot of these super-woke people that I thought were just crazy.

But in real life, I don't see these caricatures so often (where they do exist, they tend to stick together in close-knit organisations and so are easy to avoid). Most women, gay and trans people, minorities etc. that I met just want to have some basic rights and don't care about culture wars about language use etc.

no, exactly, you can feel the effect on some peoples beliefs and behaviours but they can always be reasoned with in reality. You are completely correct that these behaviours are so much more extreme online with the #KillAllMen Movements, 4B[0] and choose the bear. I still hear whispers of these beliefs, but it’s not nearly as strongly held or widely seen as it is on social media.

More impressionable people might hide stronger beliefs, like my mum, who is a reformer in the UK and parrots all their talking points and soundbites, but only down the pub with her like minded friends, or with me. Never to a labour supporter or in a public forum- so they almost never get challenged; and they become so deep rooted.

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/4B_movement

I don’t believe we can judge what happened just by looking at the majority opinion and give it merit, but I also can’t dismiss it as simply "stupidity."

Messages from certain leaders can resonate deeply with people. If a message is well-received by so many, it could mean the opposing side didn’t present a strong enough argument—basic politics.

In my persoanl view, the discourse needed to challenge figures like Trump is limited by U.S. politics, which is heavily influenced by corporate funding. This influence likely explains why the Democratic Party often seems unwilling to take bold stances.

Policies like stronger unions, better social protections, higher taxes for the wealthy, and a meaningful minimum wage increase are hard to promise if campaigns depend on corporate backing.

"this apparent step backwards"

When optimising globally, sometimes a backward step is required to escape a local minima. It is possible that progressive politics has made a misstep, and that correcting that is the right thing to do.

I think we can all see that correcting to oligarchy/authoritarianism/fascism never works out well for any nation. I don't see your suggestion of a correction working out here either.
I really wish your comment to be relevant.

There is probably no single thing that you could ascribe to 70M voters except that they vote. However, there are plenty of themes that are touted amongst supporters, many (all?) of which are easily shown to be false. Also, his biggest benefactors are people with a lot of money or influence... which are definitely not most of those 70M voters.

The man was convicted by a jury, impeached, and is known to have raped people. He is a known national security risk. ... the "critiques" are endless.

IMHO, to say that there is a useful message to be sent by electing him is naive at best. The fact that nobody can seem to discern that message despite truly trying is also telling.

Is the message, "people just want to watch the world burn?" Is it something else? As far as I can tell, nobody actually knows.

Meanwhile, he has declared victory before the votes are actually finalized. Is the probability high? Yes. Does it undermine the process? Also, yes.

Are there factors such as, "Kamala is a black female" at play? Almost definitely. Does Trump pander to groups that are covertly/overtly racist? Yes. Do all of his supporters understand/admit that? No.

Voters complain that the economy is bad.

Trump promises to truly crater it, Musk stands behind him and promises said austerity.

Voters still vote for Trump on the basis of economy.

Are there any other ways to interpret it? Than that your average voter simply doesn't know the basics of econ?

What are the "basics of econ" in your view?
Tariffs increase prices, for example.
I agree that tariffs aren't good econ policy. What are your views on grocery "price gouging"? Rent controls?
Tariffs are worse, but, all three aren't great.
Depends on implementation but in general we already don't have a free market, and if we did the American economy would collapse with the destruction of the entire farming sector and possibly the oil and gas sector, so I don't dismiss price controls on groceries or rent controls out of hand.

Singapore has nationalized housing and is extraordinarily prosperous. Perhaps rent control isn't a good measure and we should simply do that instead.

In interviews with people who are primarily voting on the economy a common response is that they feel things were economically better for them under Trump than they were under Biden. They want to go back to that, and they believe Trump can do it again.
Structure:

We have a first pass the post voting system which only allows for two parties.

We have this thing called the electoral college that further obfuscates the popular will.

Both of these flawed systems disillusion millions of people every election cycle. People in non-swing states who have a minority opinion feel they have no voice, and often do not vote.

People who have serious issue with the two major parties have no viable method to express their political will.

---

Media:

We have a highly polarized media environment where a large number of people only get their facts from highly biased sources. This can happen on "both sides" but it's particularly evident with conservative media such as Fox News. In this outlet, millions of people see an alternate reality to the one we live in. They don't see Trump's age-addled brain or his most offensive rhetoric.

---

Policy:

Many people seem to think that the Democratic party is responsible for the inflation of the past 4 years. Many people seem to think that Trump stands for lower taxes for the working class, in ways that won't hurt them.

If we take Trump literally, he wants to deport many millions of people who live and work in this country peacefully, but do not have proper documentation. He wants to give Ukraine to Russia. I believe he is at best ambivalent to a national abortion ban. He doesn't show any support for combating climate change.

I'm probably leaving some points out, it's late.

You mention that the EC obfuscates the popular will, but you ignore that it's a balance that gives a voice to many who would otherwise have none.

Would you find a popular vote system that entirely ignores the votes of dozens of states in favor of just a few somehow carrying less obfuscation of the will of the people?

{"deleted":true,"id":42067210,"parent":42058604,"time":1730918742,"type":"comment"}
Why do states matter more than people? And of all things to comment on, why the EC?
{"deleted":true,"id":42058351,"parent":42058208,"time":1730883988,"type":"comment"}
Ok, let's take the nuanced route. Not all are stupid.

They're just more uneducated than ever, more conservative than ever, and idolizing dehumanization and evil totalitarians more than ever.

The root of everything is social insecurity and bad education, caused by the USA actually not being a country for its people but for corporations and billionaires.

I'm sorry but if you want a pathological liar, criminal and an overall horrible human being as a president of the (probably) most powerful and influential country in the world, you're just scum. Keep the downvotes coming.

The inequality in a nation must have a huge effect on the nature of the people in that nation. That a treatise on inequality has won a Nobel prizes for economics would tend to support your thesis [1]. That another Nobel prize winner has also written on inequality should clinch it [2].

Fix inequality.

[1] https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2015/dea... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Stiglitz

> I'm sorry but if you want a pathological liar, criminal and an overall horrible human being as a president of the (probably) most powerful and influential country in the world, you're just scum. Keep the downvotes coming.

This is precisely what I'm talking about. You really think this comment is going to do anything but push even more people to vote for the right? Because why would they side with your camp when you just called them scum, because you don't understand their intentions for voting for him/the party?

Which is extra unfortunate, because your comment up until that part was pretty good.

I understand their intentions. I understand that these votes come out of a place of fear. They are unhappy and a lying demagogue is pointing them to a solution and fuels them with hate. [1]

I also understand that they willfully choose to ignore massive red flags and are a bunch of hypocrites. These people have no shame and need to be shamed. It is the key emotion that leads to change and motivates to action.

Sadly, due to electoral interference by totalitarian regimes, media outlets, Musk, and the internet in general, these people who would otherwise be ostracized by the community due to their antisocial behaviours have been normalized.

Once you're set up like that, it's extremely difficult to get out of. I am afraid that the US has check-mated itself for at least an entire generation. The only thing that can drive a change is hope and basic human decency, ethics and morality.

Which brings us back to people wilfully being the exact opposites of those values. We've had lying oppressive demagogues probably since the dawn of humanity. Most certainly in the last century.

However, despite being afraid and frustrated, many people sided against such leaders. And this is why I consider not doing so a personal moral failing.

[1] https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2024/11/trump-voters-li...

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Just so you know, this is exactly the sort of divisive rhetoric - from all sides of the political spectrum - that has led America down this path, and will continue to do so.

You can chalk it up to "stupidity", which is rather silly on its face, or you can acknowledge that this result is the symptom of something far deeper, and try to explore what those issues are, and try to find solutions.

One's easier though, I imagine.

Racism, and misogyny appear to be the deeper issues vs the more general and generous stupidity.
Has there been a root cause analysis on why the racists and misogynists only strike sometimes? They appeared to be powerless when the Democrats nominate charismatic candidates like Obama. My read from a distance is the man was propelled somewhat by his racial background.

I put it - as an outside chance - that it is possible that the policies and outcomes of said policies have a bearing on the voting decisions people make.

How do you justify the gains he made with Hispanic and black voters?
Millions of desperate people from very different cultures came into the country overwhelming welfare services and small communities, getting paid under the table by greedy businesses undercutting Americans and subverting labor laws. The current party in power allowed this influx to reach record levels, and didn’t do a thing about it. Any path to amnesty for these people down the road will change our political landscape forever, and Americans never voted for this policy.
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Please explain the large increase in black and other non white votes Trump got this time around, then. Or were those just the stupid ones?
What is it a result of? I'm guessing: voters blamed post-covid global economic downturn on Biden because he was around at the time.

Erosion of democracy didn't seem to trouble the minds of the land of the free very much. I'm not too worried by Trump's second term, but I'm anxious about his third and fourth. One other issue is a fear of turning into Mexico, which people seem to think might happen by letting Mexicans in, but may yet be accomplished in a home-grown manner through insurrections and dismantling institutions.

It's well documented that Americans are, on average, quite undereducated. And it's also quite well documented that most of the people that vote for Trump are poorly educated.

So, not stupidity, no. But a lack of education can look similar.

https://www.uneducatedamerica.com/useful-links

I'd argue that anyone blandly categorizing dozens of millions of people who vote for a candidate (including many from communities of color and among immigrant demographics) as just uneducated ignorants is themselves overwhelmingly ignorant.

You can be against Trump for many good reasons, but a good look at why he won is about much more than just deriding his supporters as ignorant.

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The problem is that one side engaging in divisive rhetorics while the other trying to take the high ground is why Trump is winning.

Trump is engaging in hate and divisive politics, he rules GOP. Democrats are constantly trying to play the high ground, they are loosing.

You've missed the point, which is that painting one side as angelic and the other as evil is exactly what has led to this point.
I am painting one side as kinda evil and other one perfectly within norms of non-evil. Not angelic, but clearly and significantly less anti-democratic and destruction seeking.

I think that the politics got to this point because the "sides" are graded on the curve. No matter how bad one side gets, you are supposed to project best possible intentions on them, worst possible intentions on their liberal opposition just so someone can say "they are the same". Like common. The long term plan to destroy Roe vs Wade for real and worked. The rights of gays and trans are going down the drain. There is literal plan to make anticonception harder to get. Trump was literally talking about this being last election and literally tried the coup after last election.

Can we please, stop with the nonsense? I remember center mocking feminists when they said abortion rights are at dangers. Guess what, they were right.

This is not about needing to listen in a more approving way. It is about needing to listen and oppose more strongly, because what they say about themselves is that they find "evil" to be something to aspire to.

How is accusing him of being a Nazi, an extremist, a dictator, etc "taking the high ground"? He was already president once and was provably NOT Hitler..
His own running mate called him America's Hitler.
Firstly, Democratic establishment goes out of their way to not say these. Which is their mistake, GOP has no equivalent problem to accuse democrats of evil.

Second, he literally said he aspires to be a dictator, talks approvingly about dictators, and he does engage in literal extremist rhetoric on his rallies. You can be Nazi, an extremist, a dictator while not being literally Hitler in every single detail.

He likes when people say that about him. Not saying those is just lying, insisting that others dont say those is insisting on everyone lying.

In their defense, they faced a tough choice: convicted sex offender or empty suit.
All other things aside, don't you think choosing a convicted sex offender over an empty suit is quite damning on its own? Are his values the values USA wants to promote both internally and externally? Apparently so. :(
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It's sad if that's tough.
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