The deep learning boom caught almost everyone by surprise
https://www.understandingai.org/p/why-the-deep-learning-boom-caughtThat's baloney. The old ML adage "there's no data like more data" is as old as mankind itself.
Really? Did it take at least an entire rack to store?
A model is grown, not crafted like a computer program, which makes it hard to predict. (More precisely, a big growth phase follows the crafting phase.)
Dall-E was the only big surprising consumer model-- 2022 saw a sudden huge leap from "txt2img is kind of funny" to "txt2img is actually interesting". I would have assumed such a thing could only come in 2030 or earlier. But deep learning is full of counterintuitive results (like the NFL theorem not mattering, or ReLU being better than sigmoid).
But in hindsight, it was naive to think "this does not work yet" would get in the way of the products being sold and monetized.