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foobiekr | on: Life expectancy rise in rich countries slows down: took 30 years to prove
I wonder how much impact there will be on average life expectancy uncovering that a lot of the super-long-lived population examples have been pension fraud.
jandrewrogers | parent | next
Probably not much because you can find long-lived populations that don't follow the administrative boundaries of pensions.

King County in Washington State, which contains the Seattle metro area, has a life expectancy of 86.3 years. This is higher than any country in the world. If you move one county south (Pierce), it is 75.7 years, slightly worse than the US average currently. Not surprisingly, there are many obvious factors that may contribute to this e.g. the obesity rate in Pierce County is 50% higher and the obesity rate in King County is roughly half the US obesity rate. The Seattle metro is a relatively walkable city and people do, Pierce County is not. As a matter of demographics, King County is significantly more Asian than Pierce County. And so on.

Both counties are geographically large and contain many municipalities. It is difficult to come up with a theory where pension fraud in King County is so high relative to Pierce County that it explains a >10 year difference in life expectancy.

zeroonetwothree | root | parent
This source gives King County as 81 years: https://www.communitiescount.org/life-expectancy
jandrewrogers | root | parent
There is quite a lot of disagreement but I think you are correct. My source appears to be bad AI generated content; I did not dig in too much.

The underlying source of 86.3 matches San Juan county from other sources. Seattle metro areas are a bit over 83, and King County is somewhere between 81-82 from sources that seem more primary.

Internet search is straight garbage these days.

potato3732842 | parent
Those people are statistically irrelevant. Not enough of them to drag the average much one way or the other.
dustyventure | root | parent
For every pension fraud that went on that long and took such an obvious risk with continuing to a notable age, I imagine there were hundreds or thousands of shorter frauds.
tired-turtle | root | parent
In this case, the “shorter frauds” involve dying near the reported date of death? By your definition, the postulated (unreported) deviation is statistically insignificant.