Really? Selling goods online (Amazon) is not AGI. It didn’t take a huge leap to think that bookstores on the web could scale. Nobody knew if it would be Amazon to pull it off, sure, but I mean ostensibly why not? (Yes, yes hindsight being what it is…)
Apple — yeah the personal computer nobody fathomed but the immediate business use case for empowering accountants maybe should have been an easy logical next step. Probably why Microsoft scooped the makers of Excel so quickly.
Google? Organizing the world’s data and making it searchable a la the phone book and then (maybe they didn’t think of that maybe Wall Street forced them to) monetizing their platform and all the eyeballs is just an ad play scaled insanely thanks to the internet.
I dunno. I just think AGI is unlike the previous examples so many steps into the future compared to the examples that it truly seems unlikely even if the payoff is basically infinity.
I don't think you remember the dot-com era. Loads of people thought Amazon and Pets.com were hilarious ideas. Cliff Stoll wrote a whole book on how the Internet was going to do nothing useful and we were all going to buy stuff (yes, the books too) at bricks-and-mortar, which was rapturously received and got him into _Newsweek_ (back when everyone read that).
"We’re promised instant catalog shopping — just point and click for great deals. We’ll order airline tickets over the network, make restaurant reservations and negotiate sales contracts. Stores will become obsolete. So how come my local mall does more business in an afternoon than the entire Internet handles in a month?"
However, I think because the money involved and all of these being forced upon us, one of these companies will get 1000x return. A perfect example is the Canva price hike from yesterday or any and every Google product from here on out. It's essentially being forced upon everyone that uses internet technology and someone is going to win while everyone else loses (consumers and small businesses).
Imagine organizing the world's data and knowledge, and integrating it seamlessly into every possible workflow.
Now you're getting close.
But also remember, this company is not trying to produce AGI (intelligence comparable to the flexibility of human cognition), it's trying to produce super intelligence (intelligence beyond human cognition). Imagine what that could do for your job, career, dreams, aspirations, moon shots.
If / when AGI happens can we make sure it’s not the Matrix?