This wasn't obvious a year ago, but today CAD literally reduces to Simon Wilson's pelican test, since CAD is largely a matter of functional CSG, and CSG is really not that different from SVG. It's just one more dimension, which it turns out is not a problem.
LLMs consistently one-shot CSG based video game levels with interesting physics puzzles (citing myself). Given this I'm willing to conclude that the frontier models are good at automated CAD if given the correct harness. But I guess a lot of people don't know this yet.
Show me the blog posts where people talk about the results they got "vibe coding" and those arXiv papers look great in comparison!
There is the insidious thing with LLMs is that they can get the general shape of something right but that thing will not be useful if the last 1% is wrong. It might be that the operator sees the problem and fixes it, but it may also be that the LLM hypnotizes the operator into not seeing the errors and gaps.
I know there are many sorts of problems where I've had good experiences with LLMs but I know other people have had bad experiences and some of it might be my skill but some of it is just plain luck.