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Spot on!

I am also under the impression that the LLM tech is plateauing before bringing the promised productivity. Great as a coding assistant, great a summarizing a text, translating, great a helping plan a trip...

But for the rest, e.g. act as a life assistant, it is still far off with no hope to reach the desired performance level.

I would not be surprisd to see OpenAI and the likes to start reverting to Siri v1 strategies, i.e. "if this then that" kind of agent routing.

Why this is surprising? LLM-s are good in text generation on the base of the stuff they were trained on. Software is text generation, translation is text generation, LLMs can answer questions since billions were spent on tuning foundation models, that is people were collecting in (semi)automatic way questions with answers to the point we might think that LLM-s are "thinking".

Now people want to handle car rental. What are the relevant data that models were trained on for this kind of application? For Python code there is kirjillion examples on Github, for mathematical proofs there is endless stream of papers, books, etc. But for car rental? Mostly adds in the internet that want to trick you into a bad deal. So yes, LLM will be a disappointment, as it tries, well, to trick you into a bad deal. In addition, data are rather scarce so there will be a lot of hallucination, as it gets mixed up with yacht rental, bikes rental, ski equipment rental, etc.

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